Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
